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3Q 2020 Market and Economic Overview

It is as true metaphorically as it is true physically when we put one foot in front of another, that at every point in our lives, every step we take is at a crossroads and the path that we choose can lead to outcomes that range from the merely mundane to the truly tumultuous. In the economic and the geopolitical arenas, we are faced with a multitude of crossroads immediately in front of us. From the looming US Presidential election to what the virus may yet have in store for us and the economic ramifications of further lockdowns, to USChina trade relations. There are others, but we mention the main themes. At the depths of the Covid crisis, the financial markets had very rapidly priced in the worstcase scenario: that of an unknown contagion whose morbidity was a wild guess at best afflicting a civilisation wholly unprepared for such a scenario. The equally unbelievable bounce off the March lows to the August highs priced in the best case scenario where, having spent the best part of spring lounging on the sofa and playing video games, doing DIY or taking up online trading, the economy was supposed to just get up and carry on where it had left off, as if nothing had happened.

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